Currency Market Update 13/01/10

PhilBen · #1 13-01-2010, 08:25 AM

The Pound had a good day yesterday against the majors. UK data out Tuesday showed a positive stance. However one disappointing release was the RICS House Price Balance which unexpectedly dropped back from a three-year high. Easily counteracting that was, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor for December. The report showed a 6 percent jump in total sales that marked the best reading in four years. Not quite as impressive, the nation’s trade deficit improved slightly. A 6.78 billion pound shortfall was assisted by a 0.1 percent increase in exports to their highest level in a year. I would however refrain from celebrating as any gains could be lost as more UK data comes out this week. I feel as the elections draw closer the pound could make some gains as the Government try and generate a feel good factor portraying a positive stance to the economy. This could be a more political than mathematical position and any gains made could collapse with the outcome of a new or reelected government.

Data released 13th Jan
UK NIESR GDP Est.
FR CPI
FR HICP
FR Current Account
DE GDP
UK Industrial Production
UK Manufacturing Production

Live IB Rates 9.00 am
GBP-EURO 1.119
GBP-USD 1.622
GBP-AUD 1.754
EURO-USD 1.448

flanagan · #2 13-01-2010, 10:16 AM

Thanks for the update PhilBen. Which way do you think the US Dollar will go in the next few months? I know it's been weak for a while now and I've been looking into selling gold coins that we're passed down to me and everyone keeps saying that the price of gold is dependent on the performance of the US Dollar.

PhilBen · #3 13-01-2010, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flanagan

Thanks for the update PhilBen. Which way do you think the US Dollar will go in the next few months? I know it's been weak for a while now and I've been looking into selling gold coins that we're passed down to me and everyone keeps saying that the price of gold is dependent on the performance of the US Dollar.

Hi flanagan short term we could see GBP gains against USD 1.65 -1.70. But long term my personal opinion is for GBP weakness.

PhilBen · #4 14-01-2010, 08:22 AM

The Pound According to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research the U.K. economy emerged from the worst recession on record in the fourth quarter.
GDP grew 0.3 % after shrinking 0.2 % in the third quarter, the institute, whose clients include the Bank of England and the Treasury, said in an e- mailed statement yesterday in London. The economy shrank 4.8 % in 2009, more than any year of the Great Depression and the most since 1921.
Andrew Sentance policy maker at the BOE told the Guardian newspaper that the early months of the recovery may “feel fragile and uncertain.”
Yesterdays manufacturing data showed an unexpected stall for second month, in November. This could indicate that the economy is still struggling to get any momentum. Its reported that the U.K. has lost 6 % of GDP since the first quarter of 2008 the worst figure since records began.

The Dollar An administration official told Bloomberg yesterday that President Barack Obama is going to announce his intention to impose a fee on more than 20 of the country’s largest banks and financial institutions to help recoup the taxpayer bailout money and trim the federal budget deficit.
The fees, expected to be spread over 10 years and will be based on the leverage or amount of liability each firm has. Obama will outline his proposal to raise as much as 120 billion US Dollars at a White House event today.

The Euro According to the Federal Statistics, Germany Europe’s largest economy has stagnated over the fourth quarter, ending the worst year since World War 2. GDP remained at the same level as the previous quarter and a mist of uncertainty remains with investors and analysts alike.

Data released 14th Jan
AU Unemployment
AU Employment
DE CPI (F)
DE HICP (F)
EURO Industrial production
US Initial Claims
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales Ex Autos
US Import prices

Live IB Rates 9.00 am
GBP-EURO 1.122
GBP-USD 1.629
GBP-AUD 1.75
EURO-USD 1.452

PhilBen · #5 18-03-2010, 04:56 AM

The Pound - Makes a comeback and pushes above the 1.11’s on the Euro and 1.52’s against the Dollar after the number of people unemployed in the UK fell again, leaving the jobless rate at 7.8%. Total unemployment stood at 2.45 million for the three months to January, down 33,000 on the previous three months. Long-term unemployment, however, rose by 61,000 to 687,000. Also London-based strategist at Shore Capital Gerard Lane said “Interest rates are likely to stay low for some time. We have a political agenda to bring in some significant fiscal tightening, which will probably mean rates will stay lower for longer than elsewhere”

Elsewhere Gordon Brown’s government spent more than 780 million pounds on reorganizing its departments with no way of tracking any tangible benefits of the changes, according to a National Audit Office report out today. It seems the changes made since the 2005 general election are impossible to show that they offered any value for money and the report also claimed there was a risk that public bodies were carrying out reorganizations “unnecessarily.”

With a lot of Euro and US data out today we could see a lot of movement in the markets.

Major Data out Today
EU Current account (nsa)
EU Current account (sa)
EU Trade balance (nsa)
EU Trade balance (sa)
UK CBI Industrial Trends
US Current account
US Initial Claims
US CPI
US CPI ex food and energy
US Philadelphia Fed Survey

Live IB rates at 4.39 am UK
GBP - EURO 1.115
GBP - USD 1.53
GBP- AUD 1.657

Currency Market Update 13/01/10

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